Laporte (3 miles east-southeast): 12 inches So despite some fine-tuning as the storm approached, the National Weather Service mostly nailed this storm in regard to timing of the event and snow totals. Even then, the weather service forecast called for 12 to 18 inches of snow for a small pocket in that area. However, three sites southwest of the city reported 24, 18 and 22 inches, the highest totals from the storm. Many of the reporting stations in the city measured 7 to 10 inches. The Monday night forecast for the Colorado Springs area was 8 to 12 inches. Reported totals ranged from 6.3 inches in Denver to 10.5 inches in Aurora, with many stations reporting 8 to 9 inches.Ĭolorado Springs area sees biggest snow totals Like with Fort Collins, by Monday night the weather service doubled Denver's expected snowfall from its morning forecast, making the city's forecast total 8 to 12 inches. The weather service forecast for Boulder was 8 to 12 inches, and reported totals ranged from 8.3 to 10.5 inches. The National Weather Service forecast for Greeley predicted 6 to 8 inches of snow, and reports from the city ranged mostly from 5 to 8 inches. Greeley, Boulder, Denver forecast accuracy That forecast indicated Fort Collins had a 100% chance of seeing more than 2 inches of snow, 97% chance of more than 4 inches, 72% chance of more than 6 inches, 54% chance of more than 8 inches and 14% chance of more than 12 inches. The low-end forecast for Fort Collins was 5 inches, the high-end forecast was 12 inches and the expected amount was 10 inches. The weather service also has a feature called a probabilistic snowfall forecast that is a percentages-based model of varying snow totals for various cities in Colorado. You might be surprised how accurate the forecast was. But let's take a look at the accuracy and lead time of the National Weather Service's snow total forecast for the biggest snowstorm this season for the Interstate 25 corridor. There are many TV and private business meteorologists in Colorado. Many people don't care about those things and just want an accurate weather forecast. This is mostly because of the influence of terrain, including the mountains, but also because of more subtle influencers such as the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge and the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone, which played a role in our most recent storm. The state is considered among the toughest regions to accurately forecast weather, according to experts. People love to complain about the weather and maybe even more so about the lack of accurate forecasting.ĭespite major advances in computer modeling in recent years, accurately forecasting snow and rain totals can be especially difficult in Colorado.
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